Forecasting Canada’s future: Economic trends and strategic moves for 2026

Trump Executive Order Launches Trade War

Important Update: President Trump Pauses Tariff’s on Canada for at Least 30 Days

Dear TCA members,

As you know, U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order to impose a 25% tariff on Canadian goods over the weekend that will take effect tomorrow morning and have enormous economic consequences. Prime Minister Trudeau has predictably released a list of goods subject to a retaliatory tariff and so begins the trade war. The impacts of the U.S trade tax and the Trudeau retaliatory countermeasures will be considerable and will absolutely affect the Canadian construction industry.

This trade war is not going away any time soon. Trump is prone to drama as we know and his threats relating to NAFTA during his last term as President were bad but not devastating by the time the new trade agreement was signed. Since then, the U.S. trade deficit with Canada has grown from $31 billion to closer to $100 billion. That’s the real reason for the trade war. The cross-border fentanyl distribution argument was a means to an end and was presumably used to justify the emergency measures legislation. Our best guess is that this new trade war will have severe and enduring impacts on TCA members.

In the coming months, news channels will be filled with stories about trade wars and their impacts but likely not satisfy your need to understand how your day-to-day businesses will be affected. Our focus at TCA will be on sharing industry-specific impacts including strategic best practices which we commit to share with TCA members as new information becomes available.

In the interest of ensuring that we are sharing meaningful and helpful information, TCA is already negotiating with an international trade strategy consultant in the hope that a strategic partnership with trade impact experts will add genuine and unique value for TCA members. I also serve on the Board of the Canadian Construction Association with whom I have been communicating 24-7 since the executive order was signed on Saturday. Rest assured that CCA is in constant contact with the federal government to analyze the Trudeau countermeasures and influence the go-forward strategy of trade negotiators. That too will be shared as it happens.

In the interim, please don’t hesitate to share your views and/or ask for assistance. We exist to serve the needs of our members and the road ahead will indeed be challenging.

Respectfully,
John Mollenhauer
President and CEO

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